Support for decision making when selecting a site for a thermal power plant based on a systematic approach using an interactive multi-criteria analysis method

The aim is to support the decision-making process when determining the location of a power plant under the presence of a large number of alternatives and multiple criteria for their evaluation: cost, construction conditions, prospects for the area development, etc. The research object was an area in the Momskiy ulus, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), where 3 potential sites (P1-P3) for the construction of a thermal power plant were considered (in the study, the number of alternatives was supplemented by 3 more sites: P4-P6). A two-level approach for comparing the alternatives was used, involving two methods of multi-criteria decision-making: multi-criteria utility analysis and the interactive method of preference ranking organization (in particular, its 2 modifications). At the first level, the conducted multi-criteria utility analysis revealed the P1 site to have the highest multi-criteria score - 0.753. At the second level, the interactive method found that the P5 and P2 sites were advantageous compared to others: their positive flows f⁺ were the highest among all alternatives (0.32 and 0.31, respectively), while and negative flows f^- had the lowest values - 0.20 and 0.21. Pairs of the alternatives (sites P3 and P1, P4, and P6) were incomparable. The ranking order of the alternatives was confirmed using a visualization tool: the alternatives P5 and P2 were the closest to the most significant evaluation criteria, thus being the most optimal solutions. Therefore, further detailed research at the stage of determining the aim and investments necessary for the construction of a power plant should focus on the P5 and P2 alternatives. The proposed method is an effective means of multi-criteria analysis when selecting an optimal site for a power plant with a relatively high number of compared alternatives and criteria for their evaluation. This method reduces the load on decision-makers during comparing alternatives using a two-level multi-criteria analysis.

systematic approach in the energy sector, multicriteriality, multi-criteria utility theory, interactive method of multi-criteria analysis, power plant location, decentralized power supply