Methodology for assessing electricity generation by solar power plants using data from long-term observations of meteorological stations

The study is aimed at developing a methodology and software for assessing electricity generation from solar power plants using a combination of parametric models for solar radiation input and data from long-term climatic observations from ground-based meteorological stations. For calculating solar radiation, a model based on estimates of the Linke turbidity factor, the Berlage model, an isotropic model for estimating reflected radiation and the Perez anisotropic model for determining scattered radiation, were used. The calculation uses the long-term measurement data of the lower and total cloudiness, temperature and transparency of the atmosphere presented in climate reference sources and publicly available on the Internet. A three-stage technique was developed in the Delphi environment in the form of a Sun-MCA computer program providing the hourly-detailed determination of electricity generation by solar power plants, assessment and flow-chart of the total solar radiation and its components on horizontal and inclined surfaces, total and lower cloudiness, temperature and electricity generation by photovoltaic converters. A calculation of electricity generation at three solar power plants planned for construction, including network plants in the Republic of Buryatia and the Omsk Oblast, and another plant in the zone of decentralised power supply in the Irkutsk Oblast, was performed. The calculation of the economic indicators for solar power plants was carried out with the utilisation rates of the installed capacity ranging from 14.6 to 18.6%, with possible deviations of solar electricity generation from the average monthly values reaching 15-26% in some months. The proposed methodology provides an acceptable assessment accuracy with hourly-detailed calculation of possible power generation capacity. For the areas under consideration, deviations in the estimated annual amounts of solar radiation obtained by the proposed method from the Nasa Power relative to the calculated values were less than 10%.

solar power plants, electricity generation, solar radiation, meteorological station data, cloudiness, software