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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ipolytech</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">iPolytech Journal</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>iPolytech Journal</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2782-4004</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2782-6341</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Irkutsk National Research Technical University</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21285/1814-3520-2023-1-109-122</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">ipolytech-682</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ЭНЕРГЕТИКА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>POWER ENGINEERING</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Оценка суммарной солнечной радиации с суточной детализацией на основе регрессионных моделей</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Evaluation of total solar radiation with daily breakdown based on regression models</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3176-2422</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Маленкова</surname><given-names>И. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Malenkova</surname><given-names>I. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Маленкова Инесса Николаевна, аспирант</p><p>665709, г. Братск, ул. Макаренко, 40, Россия</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Inessa N. Malenkova, Postgraduate Student</p><p>40 Makarenko St., Bratsk 665709, Russia</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">1m.inessa13@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8629-9549</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Шакиров</surname><given-names>В. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Shakirov</surname><given-names>V. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Шакиров Владислав Альбертович, к.т.н, старший научный сотрудник лаборатории энергоснабжения децентрализованных потребителей</p><p>664033, г. Иркутск, ул. Лермонтова, 130, Россия</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Vladislav A. Shakirov, Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Senior Researcher of the Laboratory of Power Supply of Decentralized Consumers</p><p>130 Lermontov St., Irkutsk 664033, Russia</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">shakirov@isem.irk.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Братский государственный университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Bratsk State University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт систем энергетики им. Л.А. Мелентьева СО РАН</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Melentiev Energy Systems Institute SB RAS</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2023</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>08</day><month>04</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><volume>27</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>109</fpage><lpage>122</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Маленкова И.Н., Шакиров В.А., 2023</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2023</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Маленкова И.Н., Шакиров В.А.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Malenkova I.N., Shakirov V.A.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://ipolytech.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/682">https://ipolytech.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/682</self-uri><abstract><p>Цель – на основе анализа опубликованных данных по разработке регрессионных моделей оценки потока суммарной солнечной радиации предложить новые регрессионные модели с использованием доступных метеорологических данных. Представлены основные этапы разработки регрессионных моделей и подходы к их реализации. Разработка и сравнение точности моделей выполнены на основе метеорологических данных (максимальная и минимальная температура, влажность воздуха, общая и нижняя облачность) г. Иркутск за период 2007– 2019 гг. При калибровке и валидации моделей использовались открытые базы данных наземных измерений метеостанций. В результате проведенного анализа литературных источников представлены основные этапы разработки регрессионных моделей и подходы к их реализации. Проведена калибровка и валидация 10 известных и 7 новых регрессионных моделей, в том числе 3 на основе метода опорных векторов. Показано, что наибольшую точность для оценки суммарной солнечной радиации с суточной детализацией показали новые модели, использующие данные о температуре и влажности воздуха, атмосферном давлении, общей и нижней облачности. Минимальная средняя абсолютная ошибка рассмотренных известных моделей при оценке суточных значений суммарной солнечной радиации за период 2016–2019 гг. составила 627,52 Вт·ч/м2·сут, новых предложенных регрессионных моделей – 504,7 Вт·ч/м2·сут, регрессионных моделей на основе метода опорных векторов – 463,2 Вт·ч/м2·сут. На основе анализа средней ошибки смещения определены модели, имеющие наибольшую точность для оценки  месячных и годовых сумм суммарной солнечной радиации: известная регрессионная модель, использующая данные о влажности воздуха, а также регрессионная модель на основе метода опорных векторов.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The study aims to propose new regression models using available weather data by analyzing the data published on the development of regression models for evaluating the flux of total solar radiation. Following an analysis of literature sources, primary stages in developing regression models and approaches to their implementation are described. Models are developed and compared for accuracy based on weather data (maximum and minimal temperature, air humidity, overall and lower cloudiness) in Irkutsk over 2007–2019. For calibration and validation of the models, open databases of ground measurements of weather stations were used. Ten known and seven new regression models were calibrated and validated, including three models based on the support vector method. The new models based on air temperature and humidity, atmospheric pressure, as well as overall and lower cloudiness, showed the highest accuracy in evaluating the total solar radiation with daily breakdown. The maximum mean absolute error in evaluating daily total solar radiation over 2016–2019 comprised 627.52 W·h/m2·day for the analyzed known models, 504.7 W·h/m2·day for the newly proposed regression models, and 463.2 W·h/m2·day for the regression models based on the support vector method. The conducted analysis of the mean bias error revealed models having the highest accuracy in evaluating monthly and annual sums of total solar radiation were determined. These include a known regression model using air humidity data and a regression model based on the support vector method.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>солнечная радиация</kwd><kwd>регрессионная модель</kwd><kwd>метод опорных векторов</kwd><kwd>валидация</kwd><kwd>калибровка</kwd><kwd>метеорологические параметры</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>solar radiation</kwd><kwd>regression model</kwd><kwd>support vector machine</kwd><kwd>validation</kwd><kwd>calibration</kwd><kwd>meteorological parameters</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Работа выполнена в рамках проекта государственного задания (№ FWEU-2021-0004) программы фундаментальных исследований РФ на 2021–2030 гг. с использованием ресурсов ЦКП «Высокотемпературный контур» (Минобрнауки России, проект № 13.ЦКП.21.0038).</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">The research was carried out under the State Assignment Project (no. 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